Wall street has closed at a loss (Dow Jones: -0.54%; S&P 500: -0.58%; Nasdaq: -0.64%) the session this Thursday after the Kabul attacks, the employment data, the revision of the GDP and as before the speech of Jerome Powell, president of the Federal Reserve (Fed), at the Jackson Hole symposium. The indices take some breather after the records reached in recent days.
The Nasdaq has yielded the barrier of 15,000 points, from which it had not been lowered since Tuesday, and the S&P 500 It has also abandoned the 4,500 integers, conquered on Wednesday. Despite this, US equities maintain their bullish inertia, with annual increases of 16% for the technology index and 19% for the main world indicator. Both indices have broken the streak of 5 days in a row closing in green.
On the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the market consensus believes that it's not the moment so that the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell, announces when the cut of the purchase of assets by the US bank will begin ('tapering'). Economists are very clear that Powell will "disappoint" the expectations of all those who expect a clear signal on what the central bank is going to do in the future with the stimulus.
Julius Baer highlights that the risks due to the increase in Covid cases are becoming more visible every day. "High-frequency data on air traffic or restaurant reservations is declining as American consumers become more cautious again. In this context, Powell would do well to keep all options open and avoid making a clear statement on Friday", says Yves Bonzon, an analyst at the Swiss bank.
THE TAPERING, MAYBE IN NOVEMBER
Analysts Bank of America have anticipated their forecast for the beginning of tapering (the reduction of the Fed's asset purchase program, which now stands at $ 120 billion per month) "until November from January, although this forecast depends on the evolution of the labor data during the next months ", they indicate.
In his opinion, "the most important thing will be how the Fed manages market expectations, as it advances in this first phase of tightening its monetary policy. "For their part, Deutsche Bank strategists believe that the Fed will be" more cautious "about tapering, due to the slowdown that some economic data are showing.
GDP AND UNEMPLOYMENT
In this sense, investors focus on the economic data of the day. On the one hand, the first revision of GDP has confirmed that the US economy has grown by 6.6%, compared to the 6.5% shown in the previous data and below the 6.7% forecast, according to the Government's Office of Economic Analysis.
"Second quarter GDP growth reflected increases in consumer spending, non-residential fixed investment, exports, and state and local government spending, which were partially offset by declines in inventory investment, from residential investment and federal government spending, "they explained.
Likewise, unemployment data show that in the last week 353,000 requests were registered, somewhat above the 350,000 expected and the 349,000 notified a week ago. As for the continuous requests, they fall again by 3,000 compared to a week ago, reaching 2.86 million.
"The downward trend in claims continues, despite the Covid wave, presumably because the bar for letting staff go is very high, given the narrow labor market," they point out from Pantheon Macroeconomics. They add that "Delta's impact on the labor market is more likely to be in the area of recruitment."
On Friday, the personal income and expenses figures for the month of July and the consumer price index for the same month, known as PCE, which is the price variable most followed by the Fed.
TWO ATTACKS ON KABUL
At the geopolitical level, there have been two explosions in the vicinity of the Kabul airport this Thursday. At the moment there are no confirmed figures of victims and injuries, although the media agree that the attacks have been charged at least 60 dead. Several European countries had stopped the evacuation of Afghans just before the event, anticipating that an attack happened.
The US confirms that among the deceased there are both Afghan and American personnel. The Taliban have condemned the attack but have qualified that it took place in areas controlled by their army. Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attack.
COMPANIES AND OTHER MARKETS
On the other hand, Pfizer (-0.21%) and BioNTech (-1.61%) they have announced that will seek full approval from US regulators for a booster dose of its vaccine against Covid-19 for people over 16 years old, according to 'Bloomberg'.
For its part, Modern (+ 0.61%) is not affected in the stock market by recall of a batch of your vaccines in Japan for having contaminated vials. At the moment no incidents related to this have been reported.
Likewise, it has been known that the magazine 'Forbes' will go public via SPAC, thus being valued at 536 million, hoping to capture 511 million in the shares that it puts on the market.
In other markets, the Petroleum West texas it falls 1.04% to $ 67.66. In addition, the euro it depreciates 0.17% and changes to $ 1,175. And the ounce of gold rises 0.18%, to $ 1,794, while the profitability of the 10-year American bond relaxes to 1.342%. Finally, the bitcoin it falls 3.79% to $ 46,996.
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