Wall street (Dow Jones -0.09%; S&P 500 -1.04%; Nasdaq -2.55%) has started the week in the red despite the new Dow Jones all-time highs above 35,000. The main New York indices have been dragged down by the very strong falls of the Nasdaq. Big stocks have seen big cuts. Tesla has plummeted more than 6%, Facebook has done so by more than 4%, and while the falls in Google, Manzana or Netflix they have been around 2%.
Despite the red numbers on Monday, American equities expect the main references of the week in the area of historical highs for the Dow Jones, which has exceeded 35,000 points.
For example, him S&P 500 accumulates an annual increase up to the date of 12.7%, while the Nasdaq less than 7% in the same period. A pattern that had not occurred in recent years, since the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, and that indicates the preference of investors for actions most associated with the economic cycle.
In the economic scene, the most important thing will be the data of Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April in the US, to be published on Wednesday. Analysts already anticipate a year-on-year rebound to 3.6% due to the base effect compared to the same month in 2020, while the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, will rise to 2.3%.
"The US central bank plans 'let run' inflation above 2% for a few months, without considering modifying any of the main parameters of its monetary policy ", say Link Securities analysts.
"It is more", they add, the 'bad' employment data for the month of April will serve as an 'alibi' for this to a Fed that has set itself the goal of helping the US economy reach full employment before beginning to withdraw stimulus. However, we are not so clear that investors are going to be 'so accommodating' if inflation exceeds investors' estimates. "
In relation to the employment data for April, which is much lower than expected, the analysts of Goldman sachs consider this will delay the debate within the Fed on the withdrawal of monetary stimuli.
On Tax hike promoted by the Biden Administration for large companies, the president will meet with congressional leaders in the middle of the week to try to boost his spending plans, especially those dedicated to infrastructure.
Biden will not have it easy, as even some Democratic congressmen oppose the proposed tax increases. In this sense, Bankinter experts affirm that the leader "seems willing to settle for raising the Corporation Tax from 21% to 25%; and not to 28%, as he was ambitious (Trump reduced it from 35%). "In his opinion, this can be good for the exchanges, if it is confirmed.
At the business level, US first quarter earnings season is coming to an end with a very positive balance. At the moment, it has presented more than 70% of the S & P500: 79% of companies have beaten market estimates in revenue, while 88% have done so with the benefits.
One of the protagonists is the German BioNTech, which skyrockets on the Nasdaq after exceed forecasts with your figures, confirm that it will build a factory in Singapore and achieve an EU order for 1.8 billion doses of its Covid vaccine, which it has developed together with Pfizer.
At a strategic level, Renta 4 analysts consider that "the good bottom of the bags is maintained (monetary and fiscal stimuli, recovery of results), although we do not rule out intermediate volatility (uncertainties about pandemic, vaccination, short-term inflation rebound, excesses in certain segments -cases such as Archegos, Greensill-, geopolitical risks) that may provide opportunities to increase positions in equities at better prices ".
These experts point out that "inflation will continue to rebound in the short term, but no structural pressures to medium. The market discounts a US CPI of + 3.6% in April (vs. + 2.6% previously), a pressure to which would be added the increases in gasoline after the cyberattack on a US pipeline".
In this sense, the Petroleum West texas rises 0.5% to $ 65.20, while the euro it depreciates 0.02% and changes to $ 1.2161. In addition, the profitability of the 10-year American bond advances to 1.58% and the ounce of gold it rebounded 0.3% to $ 1,837. Finally, the bitcoin goes up 1% to $ 58,000.
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