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bad in the short term, good in the long term


Conflicting predictions about the future evolution of the price of Bitcoin have been circulating lately.

In the short term, several bearish hypotheses, and some even predict a reduction to half of the value.

On the other hand, in the medium-long term, there are several bullish forecasts, which see it surpassing the all-time highs of mid-April in the coming months.

In the first place, it must be said that the fall in recent days has caused the price to temporarily return to around that indicated by PlanB's 463-day stock-to-flow model.

According to this projection, the price of Bitcoin should be around $ 48,000 these days, with an increase towards $ 49,000 later in the week. The April 23 crash had brought the price back to these levels, perhaps known to investors and therefore probably used by many as a benchmark.

It is worth noting that in previous months, when the price had first risen above $ 60,000, the price indicated by the 463-day stock-to-flow was still below $ 40,000, and therefore somewhat more than half of what the model indicated.

Therefore, a drop to $ 48,000 is considered absolutely normal, while a drop below that could make the 463-day stock-to-flow model a benchmark. However, it is worth noting that in the short term, even a drop to $ 40,000 probably wouldn't take the price of BTC too far off this path.

However, there are those who, like the Guggenheim CIO, Scott minerd, Predict that in the short term the price of bitcoin could even go back to $ 20,000.

It is worth noting that Minerd had already made this prediction in January and was therefore wrong the first time.

However, Minerd is not the only one claiming that the price of BTC could fall further in the short term, but many of the other similar predictions suggest a drop to $ 40,000. Guggenheim's own CIO, however, suggests a range between $ 20,000 and $ 30,000, so this is not an accurate prediction.

Bitcoin price prediction up to $ 100,000

In the medium term, there are several predictions, already made in recent months, that assume a bitcoin price above the highs of $ 64,800 on April 14, or around $ 70,000.

To tell the truth, many of the analysts who are currently bearish in the short term are not so optimistic in the medium to long term, but the behavior of the BTC trend in the short and long term follows different dynamics, which do not allow a single analysis. clear and accurate for both scenarios.

In the long term, there are still a number of predictions that identify $ 100,000 as the goal , and that have not yet been denied by their authors. Looking at the chart of PlanB's Stock-to-flow model, it is clear that in this fourth epoch of Bitcoin, the price could be heading towards that number.

However, it is worth noting that long-term predictions are generally more difficult to do because there is a longer time frame in which unexpected events can occur that could cause the path to drift into unexplored areas, as happened in March of last year. In any case, Bitcoin has shown that it can withstand the impact of such contingencies.

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