The vast majority of experts agree that 2021 will be the year of the Recovery, after the nightmare that economies around the world have experienced in 2020 due to the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. However the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) it will not bounce at the same rate everywhere. Meanwhile in Europe it will do so slowly, and a true rebound is not expected until the second half of the year, in USA growth can be "dizzying."
So, for example, analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics believe. In separate reports they give their forecasts for the economies of the euro zone and the US, and are blunt in this regard. They believe that in the Old Continent the worst of the crisis "is almost over", although they point out that "the recovery will be slow." The cause? The restrictions that still remain, and that everything indicates that they will continue due to increase in infections, which could be triggered again after Christmas.
Not even the vaccine perspective manages to change the forecasts. "The challenge is how to balance the near-certainty of a drop in production in the fourth quarter, and a still weak economy in the first quarter, with the promise of a boost from vaccines next spring." Pantheon's prediction on the European economy is as follows: he points out that GDP "will fall by around 3% in the fourth and first quarters, before advance strongly about 6% from the second to the fourth quarter of the next year".
This leaves the growth forecast for full year 2021 in 4.5%. "We suspect that most of the forecasts are in the same line, ranging between 4% and 5%"These experts point out. However, they also warn that the numbers could change if the situation gets complicated, that is, if coronavirus infections continue to rise and, in response, countries expand restrictions." Do not bet on any outcome. in particular. We could change our numbers significantly in the first quarter, "they warn. In any case, one thing is clear: "Germany will overcome the pandemic better than its peers".
For its part, from AXA IM they see "probable that part of the weakness that we expected for November and December will materialize in 2021". That is why its experts believe that it will not be until the second half of the year when GDP recovers strongly. "We can look to the second half of 2021 with well-founded hopes", they say about it, emphasizing that "the latest outbreak of Covid-19 complicates economic expectations and will slow activity in the United States and the euro zone during the winter. "
In addition, although they see vaccines as a "great boost to the economic prospects" for the new year, they also warn that benefits of vaccination that has already started in the countries of the euro region "they will still be late".
THE GREAT 'SORPASSO' OF THE USA
For the US, AXA IM projects that the most of the economic 'suffering' occurs at the beginning of the year, and then a strong recovery will come. "We expect most of the shock to materialize in the first quarter of 2021, with a moderate contraction in GDP at that time."
And in Pantheon they are of the same opinion. The analysts of this firm believe that the economy will not recover "adequately" until the restrictions of Covid are lifted and people "are able and willing to substantially return to their previous way of life", something that, "being realistic" , they think it won't happen "until spring (late February or March), "given the challenge of rapidly vaccinating a large population like the US. However, once that happens, they expect to see" an unprecedented increase in consumer spending, and a strong jump in the margins of the services ".
They recall that US economic growth has slowed "dramatically in the fourth quarter", although they believe that in 2021 GDP can advance "vertiginously", especially from spring. His prediction is that the economy rebound "about 5%" in the year.