The analysis of Mirabaud Asset Management it casts good prospects for the global economy in 2021, with cautiously optimistic forecasts that while growth will be uneven and unemployment will remain high in many countries, global economic activity will grow by 5%.
As pointed Gero jung, Chief Economist at Mirabaud, "in addition to these positive forecasts, it is necessary to highlight the important role of central banks in the crisis which, thanks to political intervention, now represent 29% of world GDP, approaching 13 trillion dollars" .
In this point, Andrew Lake, Head of the Fixed Income area at Mirabaud Asset Management, clarifies that central banks will continue with low rates, but governments will begin to withdraw economic stimuli throughout 2021.
The optimistic vision of the Mirabaud experts is based, fundamentally, on three key factors:
-The arrival of the Covid-19 vaccine, which will benefit on a global scale and, especially, the economies hardest hit by Covid, including those of Southeast Asia, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
-The foreseeable resolution of the “Brexit” situation throughout the coming year.
-The change of presidency in the United States, which will substantially improve international trade relations, especially Europe and Asia, with a positive impact on the macro, although at the domestic level, Mirabaud experts see it more difficult for Biden to achieve great progress on his program due to a possible deadlock in the House and Senate. Broadly speaking, more fiscal spending, less pressure to increase taxes, and fewer risks of a trade war are expected.