The UK has the most to lose with it Brexit. Entities such as the Bank of Spain, And now it's Morgan stanley which states that, if there is no agreement with the EU, British banks can fall between 10% and 20% … and the FTSE 250, between 6% and 10%.
This is in the short term. In the middle and long, the US investment bank acknowledges that despite being "an unexpected surprise for the markets, the negative impact of a no-deal Brexit will be cushioned by the positive macro outlook. "
"At this point, we believe markets would react with controlled disappointment rather than overstressing, considering that the global outlook remains strong and healthy for next year," he argues Morgan stanley in your report. "In addition, the stocks that have the most to lose by a Brexit 'hard' are also the main beneficiaries of the lifting of the restrictions imposed against the Covid", continues the entity.
Beyond British banking, the other sectors most exposed to a Brexit without agreement are insurers, real estate, construction, health and those related to basic consumer products, according to Morgan Stanley.
EUROPE WILL CONTINUE TO SMILE, BUT NOT SO MUCH
And Europe? The investment bank does not see a probable Brexit 'hard' spoil the "recovery history of the GDP and the anticipated earnings in the Old Continent next year. "What it can do is" create some additional uncertainty, which may end up weighing down valuations somewhat and making it difficult to attract global investors to the region. "
"If the fact that good news from vaccines reduced the likelihood of a 'bearish scenario' in early November, we would see a Brexit no deal as an event that can dilute the probability of a 'bullish scenario' without seriously affecting our base narrative for Europe, "he adds.
By sectors, the most exposed in the Old Continent to the pound and, therefore, to a divorce without agreement between the United Kingdom and the EU, they are banks and automobile companies.