JP Morgan is officially pessimistic. Is he first major bank to predict a drop in GDP from the United States during the first quarter of 2021 due to the increase in cases. The forecasts of the financial company go against the current, the rest of the experts, so far, are more optimistic and believe that the first three months of the year will be positive.
According to JP Morgan, it will not be until the second quarter when the positive economic effects derived from the vaccine begin to be seen. In fact, expect that between April and September the economy will.
Financial experts predict that during the first three months of 2021 the US economy will decline 1% after a growth of 2.8% in the last quarter of 2020. Looking ahead to the next quarters, they expect a rise of 4.5% and 6.5% in the second and third quarters.
Despite the advances of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that have become known in recent weeks, the virus remains unstoppable in the United States. So much that this week New York City has ordered the closure of all public schools to try to stop the spread of the pandemic.
In recent sessions, the US economy has been very alert to the advance of the virus, with the spread of the virus weighing more than the good news about the pandemic. While the squares of the Old Continent have been registering significant increases for two weeks, the Ibex has advanced 2.5% in the last five days, the main New York indexes have been much more hesitant.
This Friday without going any further, Pfizer has asked the FDA for authorization to begin distributing its vaccine against Covid-19 in December. The news has encouraged Europe, however, Wall Street is trading with falls of less than 1%.