BBVA will sell TSB, the British division of Sabadell; and break his alliance with Allianz in insurance and the Catalan bank and Amundi in funds, if the merger with the entity chaired by Josep Oliu.
These are some of the main conclusions of the analysts of Barclays when analyzing the possible operation between both entities, which confirmed the negotiations (anticipated by ForexNews.online early September) this Monday, after the market closes.
Barclays estimates that the future entity should carry out a provision for TSB's goodwill of about € 1.2 billion, based on a 10 times multiple applied to its 2023 net profit forecast of just £ 21 million for the franchise.
"We observe lack of scale and limited profitability at TSB and therefore we see it as a possible candidate for sale", argue the analysts of the British entity.
On the other hand, Barclays assumes that BBVA will break the contracts you have signed with Allianz in the insurance business and the one recently signed by Sabadell with Amundi on investment funds.
"The new entity would have to pay to cancel the agreements with Amundi and Allianz, which implies some costs of an additional 740 million euros", they affirm.
Its calculation is based on the sale agreement signed between Sabadell and Amundi, valued at 430 million euros, plus 30 million additional euros in variables until 2024; and an assessment of the agreement between BBVA and Allianz in 277 million euros, according to the price paid in the agreement.
BBVA agreed in April with Allianz the creation of a bancassurance alliance to develop the non-life insurance business in Spain, excluding the health line, for an initial fixed price of 277 million euros, so the German insurer will control the business. In addition, the agreement contemplated a variable payment of up to 100 million for objectives.
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