Can Europe ropen in time for Christmas? That is the question that many ask themselves, since the calendar advances and the holidays are approaching. The most repeated trend among experts is prudence, since they believe that it is convenient not to trust too much to avoid disappointment in case the situation does not improve. Although there are also openly optimistic ones, such as analysts of JP Morgan, who still trust that the restrictions of the Covid-19 imposed are softened in countries like Spain, Germany Y United Kingdom.
This is what David Mackie, economist at JP Morgan, says in a note published this week and echoed CNBC, in which he explains the reasons that lead him to think this way. "Given the enormous amount of economic and social activity that takes place in December, it is essential to know if the current deadlines will be met. Our judgment is that they will become true", he asserts in reference to the dates that European economies have set for the reopening after the closings decreed to contain the second wave of coronavirus infections.
And why do you think this way? Well, because the bank has studied the latest mobility data in Europe, comparing them with what happened during the first wave, and has concluded that in Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom mobility figures have dropped enough to keep the virus spreading at a manageable rate.
"The closings should soften in early December, allowing for a strong rebound in economic and social activity before the holiday season," Mackie says. It should be remembered that the national closure decreed by Germany will last until the end of November, although Angela Merkel's Executive values the possibility of extending the date, while in France the current restrictions will last until December 1. In the United Kingdom the last closure will end on December 2, and in Spain the communities decide every two weeks.
JP Morgan therefore believes that Christmas could be something 'normal', although it also warns that the contagion data cannot be lost sight of … nor the development of the vaccines in which several laboratories work. "It remains to be seen whether or not there will be another closure in Europe during the first months of next year, and much depends on the evolution of the vaccine candidates," says the US bank analyst.
Although he still insists that, "For now, enough has been done to reverse the infections". "The data analyzed suggests that the restrictions put in place across Europe in recent weeks will be enough to reassert control over the virus, at least for now," Mackie concludes.
THE HOPE OF AN UNRESTRICTED CHRISTMAS COOLS
However, not everyone shares JP Morgan's optimism. In fact, Germany, which is one of the countries that the bank believes will be in a better situation by Christmas, prefer not to trust And it has already cooled the hope of a Christmas celebration without restrictions, or with a relief from them.
It has been the German Health Minister, Jens Spahn, who has said that the number of infections has not dropped enough to think about lifting the closure. What's more, it has ensured that the German government had never promised that life would return to normal in December. On Monday, Chancellor Angela Merkel and the 16 state leaders will review current measures, which include a ban on non-essential travel and the closure of bars and restaurants.