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Shopping centers will lose 90% of their value if they become mere warehouses

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The malls They are forced to reinvent themselves, amid the Covid pandemic and the strong growth of online sales. In the event that the crisis forces them to close, one of the simplest options would be to become logistics warehouses. However, from Barclays they warn that this could be a failed strategy, since the value of the property would decrease between 60% and 90%.

The London firm has calculated that about 10,000 retail stores will close in the United States during 2020. And shopping centers will be greatly affected, as there is a domino effect on these platforms. That is, if a store closes, it causes less influx and, therefore, the sales of the rest of the stores are affected, as Barclays research analyst Ryan Preclaw explained to CNBC.

Another survey conducted by Duff & Phelps reveals that the value of commercial real estate assets in the national territory will suffer drops of up to 10% or more, although there will be a recovery in 2021. "The impact of Covid-19 in the sector will cause the market to have to reinvent itself and explore new avenues of opportunity," remarks Javier, director and leader of Valuations of Duff & Phelps for Iberia Zoido.

"Although we are still at the beginning of the second wave of the pandemic and we cannot know for sure how it will impact each country, we perceive that the degree of pessimism among investors is beginning to decrease globally and, given the availability of capital from investment, this sector could experience a stronger recovery than we expect, "explains Zoido.

DROP IN TROUBLE IN SHOPPING CENTERS

Despite the fact that Spain has been in the 'new normal' phase for several months, shopping centers still maintain capacity restrictions and are very far from the influx figures they registered before the pandemic. In fact, a report from the real estate management company MVGM determines that had 40% fewer visits in September, compared to the same month last year.

However, this study ensures that the fall in the influx it has not had an impact on billing. "Sales have recovered at a better pace, since they are made in a much more accurate way. The customer goes to the center to buy individually or as a couple, and not as a family as was usual in shopping centers," he details the general director of MVGM in Spain, Elisa Navarro.

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