The coronavirus vaccine will be a fact before the end of the year. That is what most believe, in the same way that everyone assumes that when it comes, there will be a generalized rise in the markets. However, this statement must be qualified. First of all, the vaccine must first go through three phases: "Efficacy, distribution and acceptance"explains Jefferies. Secondly, Just as there are sectors, stocks, assets … that will go up, there are others that will inevitably fare worse.
Goldman Sachs anticipates that the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) approve at least one vaccination before the end of the year, and that a large part of the population of the United States and Europe is vaccinated at the end of the second trimester, beginning of the third trimester of 2021. This will lead, according to the US bank, to an improvement in the economy. In this regard, Goldman still expects the euro zone economy to return to its pre-Covid level in the fourth quarter of 2021. "Our Global Economy team estimates that a vaccine would boost US growth by 3% and that of Europe by 2%", precise.
Delving into the reactions in specific assets, the correlation of the performance of the actions with the prospects of the vaccine suggests that the values 'Value' and 'Cyclicals' will do better with the arrival of the vaccine than those of 'Growth' and 'Defensive' in Europe. In terms of sectors, Energy, Discretionary Consumption and the Financial Sector should exceed Health Care, Basic Consumption and Technology.
"One could consider the vaccine to be an absolute positive for the entire economy. However, we found that our baskets of 'Digital Economy' and 'Stay at Home' show negative correlations with the prospect of a vaccine"explains the US bank.
Against this, your 'Recovery Basket' (which includes Volkswagen, Renault, ArcelorMittal, Basf, Eiffage, ACS, Coca-Cola, Bayer, Aena or Deutsche Post, among others), is a relatively well diversified way to invest based on an early vaccine, he adds.
However, and despite these assessments, Goldman Sachs specifies that, In the medium and long term, they continue to be positive in the growth segments in markets such as the Digital Economy and Renewables.
FROM AMADEUS TO DOMINO'S, GOING THROUGH THE GOLD
Jefferies goes further and gives 'first and last names' when referring to those who would rise when the vaccine arrives and those who are likely to fall.
The first group includes companies such as Jet2, Cineworld, Aggreko, Mediclinic, Assa Abloy, Ferragamo, BHP and the Spanish Amadeus, which he says is "highly oriented to the recovery of the airline, travel agency and hotel sectors."
In the second group, that of the values / assets that will do badly when a vaccine appears, they are B&M, gold, Domino's or video games.
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