The president of United States Donald trump has accumulated international bets close to 50 million euros, while those of Joe biden they are close to 30 million euros. The distribution, yes, has been uneven over time. Now the flow is higher towards Biden and he marks him as a favorite, according to Betfair indicators.
Trump has lost momentum that he had achieved in August ahead of the elections to be held on Tuesday, November 3. Joe Biden has opened a gap of seven percentage points, an advantage that places him with a 53% of probabilities of winning the elections against 46% of Trump.
In August, Biden He was the clear contender for victory with a 52% probability compared to Trump's 38%, based on the model developed by Betfair, based on betting movements around the world, but especially in the US.
The quotas spoke of the defeat of a Trump who "reached the worst figures for the re-election of a president in all history," according to Sam Rosbottom, a spokesman for Betfair.
In early September forecasts, Trump starred in a historic comeback (49% chance of victory) almost matching Joe Biden (50%), the Democratic candidate.
The fight is fierce and more even than expected. This is demonstrated by the record number that, around the world, is moving in the bets to guess which of the two candidates will win. Until now and since the international market opened with the start of 2020, only in Betfair its users have made predictions worth almost 89 million euros.
AN INDICATOR OF HIGH RELIABILITY
At the international level, betting is a usually very accurate electoral thermometer that helps to produce an effective X-ray of trends among voters. So much so, that in 2016 the Betfair indicator anticipated Trump's victory on election night before any other scale. That year, however, a phenomenon never seen occurred.
“The behavior of our users and the fluctuation in the staked figures are what allow us to develop a scale with which to evaluate the chances of victory in any electoral process. In the case of the US, less than 50 days before the elections are held, our experience tells us that the candidate who leads the bets (in this case Biden, with a 1.8 quota) will be the winner compared to the persecutor (now Trump, with a share of 2.1) ”, adds Rosbottom.
This happened in the elections of 2004 (Bush), 2008 (Obama) and 2012 (Obama again). However, in 2016 everything changed. “We have the exception of 2016, with a historical turnaround that now makes us remain prudent. Then Clinton led the forecasts with a 64% probability compared to Trump's 30%. Now the picture is much more equal. The expectation is very high ”, concludes Rosbottom.
WHAT DO THE SURVEYS SAY?
Polls often ask voters if they are excited about exercising the right to elect the next representative. It is in this sense that Trump's supporters far outnumber Biden's.
When asked by the YouGov Institute in July about their level of support for their chosen candidate, the 40% of Biden's voters said they were delighted, as opposed to 68% of Trump.
The institute also wanted to know if voters were motivated to go to the polls in November. Among Trump voters, the 76% pointed out that they were very animated and only the eleven% admitted that he might not attend. While in the case of Biden, the 69% expressed their enthusiasm and 16% They acknowledged that they would not come.
A poll published by the television channel CNN in mid-August showed that, among registered voters, the difference between Biden and Trump in 15 key states fell to only 1%, with 49% for the Democrat versus 48% for the Republican.
Betfair users never came to rule out Trump. What's more, in terms of bets, since 2020 began, the president has always registered more bet than his rival. Except in July when Biden was the candidate with the most confidence, taking over 60% of the movements. Now Trump's triumph is paid at € 2.04 per euro bet compared to € 2.02 per euro paid by Biden.
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