He IBEX 35 and the rest of european bags have the potential to appreciate more than Wall street until the end of the year, according to the opinion of several relevant analysts. Although during the first half of the year American stocks have largely outperformed those of the Old Continent, this trend may change in the coming months.
"The caution of international investors with Europe implies that valuations are cheaper than in the United States, so that Stocks Offer Greater Bullish Potential Over the Medium, especially compared to bonds, "analysts at Berenberg point out.
For his part, Romain Boscher, Natixis equity CIO, believes that "equities continues to offer higher returns than most government bonds from developed countries. "
And he adds that Europe has more potential to recover because it has better controlled the Covid-19 and, in addition, it does not have "the political undercurrent of big elections"And is that the presidential elections held in November in the US are generally considered a negative factor for American actions.
"Elections in the United States are likely to bring increased volatility as they get closer, but not a sharp drop, "says Esty Dwek, Natixis strategist.
From Berenberg, they add that "uncertainty surrounding upcoming presidential elections will lead to increased volatility during the summer months"which, together with the high valuation that Wall Street has achieved, greatly limits the potential of US stocks until the end of the year.
Therefore, they affirm that they like the actions "in more cyclical regions that will benefit from the economic recovery that seems to be underwayThey also take into account the high percentage of investors declaring bearish and the lower ranking of professional investors, making "a strong correction less likely."
His forecast is that the index Euro Stoxx 50 6% increase by the end of the year, while for the S&P 500 it only anticipates a revaluation of 0.5%, up to 3,250 points.
For his part, Fabiana Fedeli, Global Head of Fundamental Assets of Robeco, explains that until the virus is under control, from a geographical point of view, they continue to bet on the countries that have been able to deal more effectively with the virus. "This supposes to direct the glance towards the North of Asia and Europe"he specifies.