The pandemic and its deep mark on the US economy, which has seen GDP contract at an unprecedented rate of almost 33% in the second quarter, have blown up the stellar race for the reelection of US President Donald Trump. The Republican, who at the beginning of the year looked happy and caressed another four years in the oval office, has seen his popularity plummet at the same rate as the country's growth. The resurgence and slowdown in recovery threaten any glimpse of a comeback in the polls that he might expect last summer and he no longer even trusts that one of the vaccines his administration is sponsoring will save his ballot.
Thus, after the worst growth data in a quarter ever seen, the magnate dropped a bomb on Twitter, which political analysts have run to describe as too risky. With the verbiage that characterizes him in the microblogging social network, opened the door to postpone the presidential elections in November Because it considers that the increase in the vote by mail that the virus will produce may lead to a "fraudulent" result. The markets, especially the dollar, have suffered the shock of these words, which add to all the chaos and uncertainty prevailing due to the pandemic or the tensions between the North American country and China. Despite the fact that congressmen and senators have questioned whether Trump can get away with it, analysts already predict a tedious post-election process, if the Americans go to the polls in three months.
This would be a measure for which there is no precedent and for which the president has no power. In fact, the leader of the majority in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, of the same Republican party, assured that the vote cannot be changed and the president of the House of Representatives, Democrat Nancy Pelosi tweeted the text of the US constitution that says that Congress establishes the rules in this regard. That said, "it is not the first time that a change in the date of the elections is suggested, and Congress could end up giving in," comment analysts at 'Bloomberg'.
But what Trump's mere suggestion highlights is “concerns that the outcome of the elections is questioned if they are held on November 3, in case Trump loses"stresses Ray Attrill, chief strategy officer of the National Australia Bank," due to the increased number of mail-in votes due to the pandemic. "The market must prepare so that, if there are elections, the result is not known the same election night and it will take days, "he warns.
THE AS IN THE SLEEVE: THE VACCINE RACE
Thus, the consulted economists bet that the White House tenant continues to agitate this issue if the economy persists in being so disastrous for September and October and, especially, if the Republican campaign team does not obtain favorable calculations on whether one of the vaccines against Covid that is in experimentation can relaunch its candidacy. For the moment, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax and AstraZeneca They are in a race to be the first to put the remedy on the market and virtually all of them have announced the start of Phase 3 of their human trials. According to the director of the Institute of Infectious Diseases of the USA, Anthony Fauci, some of them may be ready in November, perhaps earlier.
The Republican administration has put all the meat on the grill to put on the market the medicine that can ensure immunity against the virus. To this end, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) launched the "Warp Speed" operation to promote the development and safety of COVID-19 pandemic treatments and vaccines in 2021. A fourth vaccine , developed by Pfizer and BioNTech, It has also started phase 3 this month, and although it is not part of that program, it has received funds worth 1.95 billion from the US government.
Experts agree that if one of these pharmaceutical companies manages to put a remedy on the market in time for the elections, Trump would have one last ship to burn with which to prevent the White House from slipping out of his hands. Unfortunately for Trump, no tenant in the presidential office – except Calvin Coolidge in 1924 – has been re-elected when there was a recession in the 24 months prior to voting day.
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