Everything will go well for Spain regardless of the distribution of the EU Fund, according to experts
The experts are clear: everything will be fine for Spain, whatever the distribution of the Recovery Fund European that the leaders of the EU discuss from this Friday. The government of Pedro Sánchez He wants most of the money to be in a lost fund, that is, that it should not be returned, but this idea has the rejection of a good part of the Twenty-seven. Hence, the negotiation is expected to be complicated. Although, according to analysts, our country will come out reinforced regardless of the scheme adopted at the end.
How? Very easy. As explained this week Gonzalo de Cadenas-Santiago, director of macroeconomic and financial analysis of Mapfre Economics in a meeting with journalists, "the effect is going to be very good in any case" because "even if there is conditionality", and the money comes in exchange for something, he believes that "they are going to be conditions to transform the economy", which in the end will be a positive thing.
"It would force us to take that step that we have always been reluctant to take", that of "changing our way of growth", says Cadenas-Santiago, who is optimistic and believes that the effect of the Fund "will be positive, and will have effects long-term "in the Spanish economy.
Of the 750,000 million euros that the EU plans to distribute, Spain would have, in principle, 140,500 Because the funds will be distributed taking into account the sectors most affected by the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. And the composition of the Spanish economy, with a strong weight in the service sector, which is one of those that have suffered the most from the Covid-19, means that the country will be one of the most benefited along with Italy.
The Mapfre expert believes, however, that thanks to the support of Germany and France, among others, something that is "a letter in our favor", much of the money will be lost, although everything will depend on how the negotiation develops , since the so-called 'frugal' (Holland, Austria, Sweden and Denmark) they are not in favor of it and have strongly opposed it.
Currently it is estimated that of the 140,500 million that would correspond to Spain, some 77,324 million would come through grants and the rest as credits that would have to be returned. Fund-loss would only have one condition, as Berenberg recalls: It will flow to member states whenever they need it if they commit to improving public growth and investment and enact structural reforms. "The Netherlands wants to make sure that only those countries that really own their investment and reform agendas receive money," says the German analysis firm.
Spain, however, insists that the majority be at a loss. Although he is aware, as Sánchez said during his tour of Europe to meet, for example, with Mark Rutte (Holland), Angela Merkel (Germany), Emmanuel Macron (France) or Stefan Löfven (Sweden), that "we all have to give in" to reach an agreement in July. An agreement that may not come at this summit, given that there is already talk of the possibility of convening another extraordinary one before the end of the month to allow time for the Twenty-seven to approach positions.
"FIRMLY ROOTED IN STRUCTURAL REFORMS"
For his part, the European Central Bank (ECB) He met this Thursday and took advantage of this appointment to "urge" the EU to get down to work "to support the recovery." Christine Lagarde He said that in the central bank "we have great hopes" that the Fund "will go ahead and be 750,000 million euros," and that "have a good ratio of loans to grants".
However, the agency's president warned that the EU Fund "must be firmly rooted" in structural reforms. Be that as it may, the ECB urged the Twenty-seven to approve "quickly" an "ambitious" revival plan, although he is aware that "in Brussels things take time and are processes that consume energy".
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