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Lagarde and the ECB do not stop encouraging the Ibex (-0.17%) that manages to close the plane


The Ibex (-0.17) closed in red on a day marked by volatility in all European markets. After knowing the words of the ECB and Lagarde has come to turn green, standing out from the rest of the index of the Old Continent. Although finally it has not been able to maintain the increases.

Outside the Spanish selective they have highlighted the significant increases in DIA (+ 3.6%) after reporting an increase in their net sales in the second quarter, with all their markets positive for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2016.

Analysts did not expect changes in the ECB's monetary policy, as the body just increased its asset purchases in June. "The real focus will be on Christine Lagarde, than will use the press conference to encourage European political leaders to agree on the EU Recovery Fund at the emergency summit to be held later in the week, "says Paul Diggle, senior economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments.

"However, with the money from the Recovery Fund to be disbursed gradually over a period of several years, we think that the ECB may have to return to action later this year, and a new QE expansion in September or December is very possible, "he adds.

Danske Bank adds in this regard that they expect the tone of the ECB message to be "cautiously optimistic" and warns that, following the latest macro data improvement, the ECB could signal that it wants to halt the easing program, as the economy is recovering at a faster than expected rate. However, Danske warns that the market may not be ready for a "less pigeon" message.

It should be recalled that last month the pandemic emergency purchasing program (PEPP) increased by 600,000 million euros, up to 1.35 trillion euros, and its term was extended from the end of 2020 to June 2021. The forecasts for inflation and growth were also cut.

China released a series of macro data this morning. The annual reading of GDP for the second quarter was 3.2%, and the consensus estimate was 2.5%. In the first quarter, the GDP reading was -6.8%. Retail sales in June were -1.8%, below the forecast of 0.3%, while the previous reading was -2.8%. Industrial production last month showed growth of 4.8%, and economists expected 4.7%. The May report was 4.4%. Investment in fixed assets fell 3.1%, and the forecast was -3.3%, taking into account that the last reading was -6.3%. Experts point out that the stock markets in Asia have had a negative day as There is concern that spending and investment in China remain weak.

As for other data that was released this Wednesday, the Fed Beige Book indicates that almost the total of the 12 districts saw increased activity as closure restrictions eased. On the other hand, the Industrial production The United States registered a 42.6% drop in the annualized rate in the second quarter, which represents the biggest collapse after the Second World War.

Finally, regarding the technical aspect of the Ibex, the selective has again near the key resistance of the 7,663 points. "Very attentive to exceeding this level of supply since, if you leave it behind, earnings could be extended to the 8,000 point level, prices where the average of 200 sessions is located. This average separates the downtrend from the bullish"emphasizes César Nuez, an analyst at Bolsamanía and head of Trader Watch.

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