The real estate sector has started a recovery that will culminate in 2021, when it will reach investment volumes of between 12,000 and 14,000 million euros, figures very similar to those observed before the Covid-19 pandemic. CBRE has made this forecast taking into account that the Spanish economy will have a recovery in 'V', assuming that there will be no regrowths that force new confinements, according to the consultant's director of studies, Lola Martínez Brioso, explained this Wednesday.
The figures for 2020 are not as optimistic, but also not as catastrophic as one might think after almost three months of very little activity. In the first semester, investment levels are very similar to those of the same period last year and the expectation is reach 8,000 or 8,500 million by the end of the year, which would mean a 30% year-on-year reduction, according to the figures collected in the special edition of the study 'Market Outlook 2020', prepared by CBRE.
"During the confinement, investors have maintained their appetite and have been studying the market," noted the Director of Capital Markets at CBRE Spain, Mikel Marco-Gardoqui. The activity has recovered once the state of alarm has been lifted, but the economic uncertainty causes the maturation of the projects to be much greater and it takes a little longer to close operations. For this reason, he stressed that the highest volume of activity will come in the fourth quarter.
UNEQUAL RECOVERY BY SECTOR
However, the recovery will not reach all sectors equally. The least affected by the pandemic has been logistics, which with the rise of electronic commerce has offset the impact that the serious economic crisis that automobile companies or the 'retail' sector are going through could have caused. "It has had its impact, but in a more discreet way," confirmed Martínez Brioso.
Specifically, the logistics sector has registered more than 500 million investment until JuneMany of the operations that were in an advanced phase before the pandemic have continued as normal, while others have been postponed until after the summer. For the rest of the year, it is foreseeable that the most active areas (Central Zone and Catalonia) will continue to grow. The contracting forecasts revolve around 450,000 and 380,000 square meters, respectively.
In the residential market, especially in rental housing, growth will continue in line with expectations. Between 2005 and 2018, the percentage of the residential park for rent in Spain has grown 43% to 4.4 million units. And this trend will continue, growing another 14% until 2024 and coming to represent more than 26% of the entire national housing stock.
The situation is somewhat more rocky in the offices, where the pre-Covid figures will not be reached until at least 2022. The forecast is that the hiring decrease by more than 50% year-on-year in cities such as Madrid and Barcelona during this year.
However, Martínez Brioso estimated that "investor interest continues to be high", although "the uncertainty regarding demand and income has made investors adopt a more cautious position in the short term." In fact, 75% of companies looking for an office before the start of the alarm state still stick to their plans.
Very similar context in hotels, which will begin their recovery in 2021 and won't return to pre-crisis levels until 2022, despite the fact that Spain continues to be a pole of great interest among investors due to its solid tourist foundations.
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