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AIReF worsens its estimate and predicts that the public deficit will reach 14.4% in 2020


The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) It has worsened its forecasts for this year and estimates that the public deficit will reach 14.4%. In addition, he believes that Spain will suffer a fall in full-time equivalent employment of between 10.7% and 12.8%. Regarding Gross Domestic Product (GDP), do you think that will close 2020 with a fall of between 10.1% and 12.4% depending on the duration of the epidemic and a possible outbreak.

This is clear from the Report on the Budget Execution, Public Debt and spending rule 2020, the data of which has been released this Thursday. In it, AIReF predicts a growth of the Spanish economy of between 5.2% and 5.8% by 2021. However, as we already anticipated in this medium, expect "incomplete and moderate" recovery due to the persistence of social distancing measures, due to the high participation in the productive structure of activities with greater social interaction, the temporality of employment and a business demography with a greater participation of SMEs "more vulnerable" to financing difficulties.

Also, the authority recalls that this year the objectives on the fulfillment of the objectives of stability, debt and spending rule for 2020 have been seen "overcome by the crisis, which has made it impossible for it to report on compliance, "shifting the focus of the analysis from calculating probabilities of compliance to evaluating the deficit and debt forecasts.

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