Oil has signed its best quarter in the last 30 years. Since its April lows, the month in which the West texas entered negative territory for the first time in its history, shale prices have increased by 165%. The following question is mandatory: Do we buy now or do we expect a relapse?
Beyond his comeback in recent weeks, both the Brent As the West texas, references in Europe and the USA, respectively, are at 34% of the levels with which they started this bumpy 2020.
The worst is over. In this sentence the opinion of some experts dedicated to raw materials is condensed, and specifically, the one popularly known as black gold.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA (International Energy Agency), believes that both the coronavirus crisis and the price war started between Russia and Saudi Arabia are "two events that happen once in a lifetime". So you don't expect something similar to happen again.
That does not mean that the global energy market is still suffering from the shock of both mega-events, so the price of crude oil will continue to accommodate volatility as a tenant in the coming months.
The shale demand level is the best thermometer to know the temperature of an industry as badly hit as oil. Own IEA has warned that demand has been, during the second quarter of the year, 17.8 million barrels per day lower than that registered in the same period of 2019.
This institution goes further and anticipates that 2020 will be the year with the greatest drop in oil demand. In all history. Projections like this have been spiced up in recent days by the forecasts of oil colossi, such as the British BP and the dutch Royal Dutch Shell.
Both have lowered their shale price outlook by 2050. And both expect a brutal impact of the crisis on their accounts.
WHAT DOES THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TELL US?
That this time yes. The analyst of ForexNews.online, J.M. Rodriguez, points out in its latest approach to crude oil that, in the short term, "the conditions are in place for 'black gold' to try to attack, this time with more success, the important resistance that it presents in the daily bearish gap of the 45 ,50 dollars".
"What the price is telling us is that the recovery of the global economy is a fact, since the price of oil is one of the most sensitive thermometers about the health of the world economy. " Apostille Rodríguez.
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