The post-Covid economic recovery has already begun, although at different rates depending on the country. Managers are optimistic about markets and especially about the stock market, which could end the year with a comeback. It has been revealed in the fifth edition of MarketWatch, a round table organized by Bolsamanía and Banca March with experts from different top-tier investment firms. As for companies, however, until 2021 surely winners and losers will not be discerned within the different sectors.
The coronavirus has left one of the most important falls in the history of the markets, but it has also generated one of the most important rebounds in history. "We are in the initial phase of a new economic cycle of recovery, supported by the greatest stimulus from central banks that there has ever been," recalls José María Ortega, CEO of March Asset Management. The manager trusts that, in the second quarter, the bottom of the crisis has been seen and, from the third quarter, "we are going to see recoveries that will be different depending on the different countries: in the United States and China, we expect a recovery in V, although Europe will take longer to recover and in particular, the countries of southern Europe are going to be a little slower. ” All with the permission of the different outbreaks of the virus that could slow reactivation.
In the opinion of Ignacio Carvajal, partner and manager at Cartesio, “the recession is going to be much more pronounced than other recessions that we have seen before, such as the great financial crisis of 2008, but also It will be shorter and the rebound will be faster ”. The expert emphasizes the fiscal stimuli so "extremely large" that governments have announced, which "are going to have a positive impact on many economies." But, if something is going to continue deepening, that is antiglobalization: "It was before the coronavirus, and that trend is going to continue to accelerate."
In the short term, the photo looks bad, but in the long term the questions are answered in favor. "This has been the greatest crisis since World War II and we cannot underestimate it for much stimulus that we have on the table. In the short term, there is great uncertainty in the system and macro forecasts are unreliable, although it is true that this uncertainty is both positive and negative, ”explains Francisco Quintana, director of Investment Strategy at ING. “We have the biggest crisis in the last 70 years, but also the largest stimulus package in history. The net is probably going to be negative, but it's not going to destroy the economy, " The manager advances, much more excited about the five years to come.
"In five years, we will not remember this pandemic, there will be no great changes. Recovery will leave us on the same path that we were before. During, We will lose part of the productive fabric of our companies, but probably less than we thought we were going to lose during the confinement ”Quintana points out.
IN 2021, WINNERS AND LOSERS WILL BE SEEN
atl Capital transfers uncertainty to companies. "There will be clear winners and losers, both at the sector level and within each sector, but it is very possible that, until well into 2021, we do not know how to differentiate them clearly ”, according to Félix López, managing partner of atl Capital Gestión. At the moment, everything seems to indicate that technological, pharmaceutical, logistics or other stable subsectors of growth are the great beneficiaries of the crisis, to the detriment of others such as event companies, air transport or the traditional office.
Those in luck are the financial markets. "Its recovery framework is established", defends Iciar Puell, equity manager at Bankia Asset Management. The stock markets always anticipate what is going to happen in the future, in this case "about six months away". "By the end of the year, it will be a reality and the bags will be above these levels, despite the poor results that listed companies present in the second quarter, ”contrasts the manager.
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