Today, without a doubt, it is characterized by expiration of the monthly options in Bitcoin offered by the CME.
This translates into 145,000 options expiring this morning, at 8:00 UTC (10:00 CEST), for a value of $ 1.06 billion.
This expiration has attracted attention several times, leading to very curious interpretations. The bitcoin options contract cannot be equated to commodity options in the CME that is settled in cash, U.S. dollars, a physical asset.
This maturity is likely to continue to attract attention in the coming weeks if trading volumes remain at the May and June levels or increase.
Since January of this year, when CME options released, This has been the period with the highest trading volumes.
Yesterday, on all platforms, including the OTC and the main Derebit, which yesterday traded more than 1.2 billion, The total volume of options trading for the first time was a record high of $ 1.8 billion.
The options tool is increasingly used by merchants and professional miners that, after the halving of May 11, they protect themselves against risk and obtain the reward by selling options. It's no coincidence that trading volumes exploded between May and June, after the introduction of the lower block reward. Basically, some miners hedge management risk through options.
Volatility remains at the lowest levels in the last three months, which are the levels of the first quarter of 2020 and equivalent to the volatility between the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020.
As for daily fluctuations on a monthly and quarterly basis, it remains at 3%, the lowest levels since mid-March.
Expiration of Bitcoin options could lead to increased volatility.
In particular, it will be interesting to follow what will be the relocation of monthly coverage that this month focused not so much on support levels between $ 7,000 and $ 8,000 but on a projection for a possible price increase above $ 9,900.
But better yet, high-coverage contracts ranged from $ 11,000 to $ 13,500. These were the coverage levels of a possible price movement by Bitcoin.
In any case, it will be interesting to follow the deadlines in the next few hours. The CME today owns 24% of the total options trade. Derebit remains the leader in derivatives with 69% of all market share.
Today starts with a Substantial balance of negative and positive signs in the cryptocurrency market.
Looking at the list of the most capitalized currencies, there are movements around parity.
To find the first positive sign, which exceeds 2% daily, it is necessary to go down to position 13 occupied by Chainlink (LINK), which today increases by 2%. Among the top 20, it is one of the best increases along with Leo Token (LEO) which goes up again and reaches more than $ 1.2.
After failing to exceed the all-time high of all time on Wednesday, Chainlink is back online today, returning to $ 4.73.
On the other hand, Tezos (XTZ), just above Chainlink at position 12, falls 2.5%.
Among the top 50, the best day gain is for Ontology (ONT) and Basic Attention Token (BAT), both with an increase of 7%.
Compound (COMP) continues to be characterized by high volatility, which today increases by 4%, with prices that, after having pushed below $ 200 in the last 48 hours, are now trying to recover when they return by above $ 250, where they have been oscillating in these hours.
He weekly balance sees a prevalence of negative signs. The worst among the top 30 is XRP, which lost about 4% from last Friday's levels. Tezos is even worse, losing 4.5%.
The best weekly increase belongs to Chainlink with 15%. Compound, at position 24, it raises around 50%. Among the top 10, the best is Ethereum, which earns just over 1.5%.
The market capitalization remains for over 260 billion dollars with Bitcoin's dominance at 64.5%. Ethereum remains just below 10%. XRP is also stable at 3.07%, although over the course of this week Ripple has pushed even below 3%, the lowest level in the past three years.
Bitcoin fluctuates today just below the $ 9,150 threshold, one step away from the lows of June 15 that marked the starting point of the current monthly sub-cycle. A subcycle that does not show strength and has passed to the final part, generally characterized by weakness.
If this were to push prices below the June 15 lows of $ 8,900, there would be room to test the previous end-May lows at $ 8,600-8,800. These are the levels to monitor over the weekend.
A major signal will appear with a recovery of $ 9,600.
A weekly close below $ 9,300 on Sunday would mark the third consecutive week of decline for Bitcoin, an event that has not happened since the beginning of March, although with a bearish formation, that of March, decidedly different from the current one.
From February to mid-March, Bitcoin's peak levels lost more than 60%, while the current move from the highs in early June sees a loss of just over 10%.
Ethereum prices are reported by contacting the $ 230, the lower neckline of the bullish channel that has been accompanying Ethereum prices since mid-March.
For ETH, it is necessary to maintain the threshold of $ 215 so as not to undermine the uptrend that has been around for three months.
On the upside, the highs posted on Wednesday at $ 250 remain significant. A rise above this level accompanied by volumes, a condition not present on Wednesday, would push ETH prices to test the highs in the $ 280-290 area registered last February.