The covid-19 pandemic will cause a contraction of world GDP of 4.9% in 2020, a more severe figure than the 3% contraction projected last April. This is indicated by the projections published this Wednesday by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which add that the exit from the crisis will be less vigorous than expected, since there will be a rebound of 5.4% in 2021, less than the 5.8% of the previous forecast.
As explained by the IMF's chief economist, Gita Gopinath, the agency predicts the accumulated losses during the crisis between 2020 and 2021 will exceed 10.6 billion euros. This will cause all regions to register a contraction in activity in 2020 for the first time.
Of course, they warn that these forecasts depend on the intensity of the economic contraction in the second quarter of this year. To this will be added the evolution of the disease, which could lead to new confinements, with their respective economic consequences.
The IMF values two different scenarios. In one supposes that the second wave of infections is anticipated to autumn 2020, which would suppose that the economic impact would be noticed with greater intensity this year. The other scenario contemplates a more favorable evolution of the pandemic. Here, global GDP would limit its decline in 2020 to 4.4%, while the 2021 recovery would be more vigorous and reach 8.4%.
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