Wall street (Dow Jones + 1.9% and 25,605 points; S&P 500 + 1.31% and 3,041 points; Nasdaq 0.96% and 9,583 points) has managed, in extremis, to save the rebound with increases of more than 1% after collapse this Thursday in its most bearish session since last March, in the middle of the coronavirus crisis. The fear of a regrowth of the pandemic, the caution of the Federal Reserve on the economy and, above all, the high ratings reached by the New York Stock Exchange, are the main factors that explain the violent correction.
To highlight, the S&P 500 is testing the support of the 3,000 pointswhere does the average 200 sessions. "Considering the magnitude of the rally, we would be surprised if there was only one day of heavy falls"recognize the experts of Morgan Stanley. According to his forecasts, the S&P 500 can correct up to 2,800 points after a rebound of over 40% from the lows in March.
And is that the big question that experts are now asking is if we are facing a strong point correction or if it is the beginning of the end of the rebound. Despite the possible outbreak of the virus in the world's largest economy, the US Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, has affirmed that the country will not confine itself again.
BERENBERG WAITS FOR ANOTHER CORRECTION
Berenberg experts believe the worst has happened in terms of the pandemic and its economic impact; They recognize that a recovery is being seen and estimate that it will be in the form of a tick (similar to the logo of the sports firm Nike). However, they believe that the bags are anticipating in excess of this economic recovery and warn that another correction could be seen in the markets.
"The time for euphoria is not yet. Financial markets aptly reflect hopes of recovery, as well as unprecedented monetary and fiscal support and the likelihood that rates will remain low for a long time. However, markets sometimes get too far ahead of the curve. Amid serious uncertainties, a new correction would not come as much of a surprise"these analysts explain.
FEDERAL RESERVE FORECASTS
The forecast by the Federal Reserve not to raise rates until the end of 2022 and continuing to buy $ 120 billion worth of assets for as long as needed has not served to reassure investors, who reap benefits as volatility increases.
"I see a full long-term recovery, with strong job creation in the coming months, not an economic depression"said Jerome Powell at a press conference, despite the difficulty of making forecasts.
The Fed forecast a GDP fall of 6.5% in 2020 and a rebound of 5.5% in 2020. The unemployment rate will drop to 9.3% at the end of the year and will continue to drop to 6.5% in 2021. And the inflation PCE It will drop to 0.8% this year to rebound to 1.6% in 2021 and to 1.7% in 2022.
However, the fact that the Fed did not anticipate a recovery in 'V' as the markets have done in the past three months, it has been enough to trigger a sharp correction in US equities.
In other markets, the West Texas oil up 0.1% to $ 36.40. Besides, the ounce of gold falls 0.13%, to $ 1,737, while the euro it depreciates 0.5% and changes to $ 1.1231. Finally, the profitability of 10-year American bond up to 0.70%.
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