The world economy will suffer its biggest contraction in 2020 since the end of World War II, with a fall in global GDP of 5.2%, as a consequence of the "sudden and widespread" impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the containment measures implemented , according to the new World Bank forecasts, which underlines that this is the first time since 1870 that there has been a recession as general as the one expected for this year.
In the new scenario managed by the international institution, in which the remission of the pandemic will allow the national measures of confinement to be lifted mid-year in the advanced economies and a little later in the emerging and developing ones, "the negative repercussions on worldwide will lose intensity during the second half of the year and the disturbances to the financial markets will not last over time, "which will allow the world economy to rebound by 4.2% in 2021, insufficient to fully compensate for the loss of activity estimated for 2020.
"The Covid-19 recession is unique in several respects, and is likely to be the deepest for advanced economies since World War II and the first contraction in output in emerging and developing economies in at least the past few years. six decades, "said Ayhan Kose, director of the World Bank's Outlook Group.
"There are no records of downward corrections as sudden and drastic in global growth forecasts as those seen today. If the past serves as a reference, the forecasts could worsen further, implying that managers Policymakers should prepare for the possibility of having to take additional measures to support the activity, "he added.
Following severe distortions to domestic supply and demand, trade and finance, economic activity in advanced economies is forecast to contract by 7% in 2020, while emerging markets and economies are expected to Development (MEED) contracts 2.5% this year, their first recession as a group in at least 60 years.
In this regard, the World Bank warns that the projected decline in per capita income of 3.6% will push millions of people into extreme poverty this year.
Among the main world economies, the euro area will show the worst evolution this year, with an estimated drop in GDP of 9.1% given the weight that the tourism sector has in many economies in the bloc, while expansion measures The monetary policy applied by the ECB and the fiscal stimuli will allow a rebound of 4.5% in 2021.
In the case of the United States, the World Bank forecasts a contraction in activity in 2020 of 6.1%, followed by a recovery of 4% next year, while for China, the international institution anticipates a growth of 1% in 2020 and an expansion next year of 6.9%.
According to the institution's base forecasts, in 2021 growth in advanced economies would rebound 3.9% and 4.6% for MEEDs. However, the World Bank stresses that the outlook is highly uncertain and there are still risks that the situation will worsen, due, for example, to the possibility that the pandemic will last longer, financial turmoil or occur a withdrawal of international trade.
Under this less flattering hypothesis, the world economy could contract up to 8% this year, to recover just over 1% in 2021, while the MEED product would decrease almost 5% this year and 10% the of advanced economies. In contrast, in an optimistic scenario, world GDP would fall by 4% in 2020 to recover more than 5% next year.
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