The fall of the number of pensioners caused by the coronavirus has once again put the viability of the current pension system on the table. Until September, the State has to assume an expense of more than € 39.4 billion to be able to pay the retirement, widowhood, permanent disability, orphanhood and family favor benefits to the more than 9.8 million pensioners who are entitled. This reality is going to force you to take extraordinary measures to the Government in summer after the pension piggy bank was emptied.
The main problem facing politicians is that pension spending is still higher than the expected income from Social Security contributions. Each worker makes an average monthly contribution to pay benefits of some 600 euros. Although in May there are 187,814 more affiliates to Social Security compared to the previous month, the total is almost one million below the 19,442,113 registered in the same month of 2019. That is, in one year they have been collected 7,000 million euros less.
What is going to happen? The temptation is to use a part of the money that Brussels is going to give to Spain within the European Recovery Plan to guarantee the payment of pensions in the next 12 months. The risk is that the deficit limit would be exceeded using funds destined to support the sectors that support Spanish GDP. It is not a minor problem. According to Feelcapital figures, to get an idea of the cost of benefits in 2021 it would take almost 84.45% of that fund to guarantee the viability of the current model.
Given this situation, it is more necessary than ever resurrect the Toledo Pact and reach a political agreement that allows modifying once and for all the pension system in Spain. Europe is not going to allow the money destined for reconstruction to be used to pay these benefits, and the creation of new taxes is not a logical solution if we think about the volume that would be necessary for the model to be sustainable in the future.
The politicians' vacations are just around the corner, but these they can't leave homework without doing because many millions of Spaniards can see their future compromised.