After a horrible first quarter, in which world stock markets have sunk –the Ibex has finished as the worst European index, with a 29% drop-, April has started with cuts in the 3.04% for the Spanish index, up to 6,579.40 points, after the negative forecasts of Donald Trump regarding the coronavirus. The President of the United States has said that the next two weeks will be "very painful" and has estimated that the disease will cause between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the country, which in turn is causing 2% falls on Wall Street.
Trump has stated that Americans' efforts to curb the spread of the coronavirus they are a "matter of life and death" and has urged citizens to heed the Administration's guidelines. At the same time, he predicted that the country you will soon see the "light at the end of the tunnel" in the pandemic which has killed 4,100 Americans and infected 190,000.
"I want all Americans to be prepared for the difficult days ahead," Trump said. "We are going to go through two very tough weeks," he stressed. Finally, the president has been forced to change his speech in the face of the rapid advance of Covid-19 in American territory.
As measures to curb the virus, after the $ 2 trillion package approved last week, the US president now advocates a $ 2 trillion infrastructure fund. "Since interest rates for the United States are at zero, now is the time to pass our long-awaited infrastructure bill for decades"he has indicated.
Here in Spain, the next few weeks also look like they will continue to be tough. Coronavirus infections have reached 102,136 positive cases, 7,719 more in the last 24 hours, according to the latest data provided by the Ministry of Health. In total there are 9,053 deceased, 864 in one day, which is a new record. Although there is also 22,647 recovered, 3,388 in one day.
In the macro data chapter, after the positive references yesterday in China, today the trend is confirmed with the manufacturing PMI Caixin, which has been above 50 (at 50.1 compared to the forecast of 46 and the previous figure of 40.3). More hopeful news from China that nevertheless to some extent they were already expected since the recovery has started there earlier.
For its part, the Bank of Japan survey of large manufacturers fell to -8, the lowest reading in seven years. In Europe, however, PMIs have been negative, also as expected. March Manufacturing PMI of the Euro Zone it has dropped to levels not seen in 92 months (44.5 from 44.8 and the forecast of 44.7).
In the US, the employment data from the ADP consultancy It has shown the destruction of 27,000 jobs in March, below the 150,000 layoffs anticipated by the consensus, although this data has not fully shown the impact of the confinement measures adopted in the country. In addition, the data on the Manufacturing sector Americans in March were not as negative as expected.
On the business front, continues the avalanche of cuts and suspensions of dividends. The Bank of England has forced British banks to suspend theirs and you are fall today with force.
In other markets, the Brent oil It is flat at $ 20.50, after hitting a low of the last 18 years this Monday. Black gold closed the most bearish quarter in its history with a Historic 66% crash. Furthermore, the euro depreciates 0.8% and changes to $ 1.0938 and the profitability of Spanish 10-year bond rebounds to 0.9%, while the Spanish risk premium go up to 118 points.
IBEX 35 ANALYSIS
"Despite the falls this Wednesday, the implications are nil. And they are because we have not drilled any support. But it is that even if we recovered the 7,000 points it would remain the same. And it is that the very short-term control zones are in the 6,500 points as more immediate support and below we have the 6,148 and 5,814 points"he argues José María Rodríguez, analyst at Bolsamanía.
"While at the top, on the resistance side, we have the 7,058, the bearish gap of 7,437 and 8,000 points (50% adjustment / reverse). Right now we are in nobody's zone, but within a rebound ", concludes this expert.
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