Next, we give answers to the values for which we have been asked the most throughout the morning. José María Rodríguez, technical analyst at Bolsamanía, analyzes Adidas, Safran, Veolia, CaixaBank, ExxonMobil, Repsol, IAG and Santander.
Hello, José María. Good afternoon, could you analyze Adidas? Do you think it is a good time to enter or is it better to wait to see the evolution of the coronavirus around the world? And if possible, could you give me your expert opinion on the suitability of choosing between Safran or Veolia? Thanks for your analysis and advice. A.GC.
Dear investor, good afternoon. No one has the answer to the question you ask me. The market has collapsed in the fastest bear market in history because it had to pick up a strong global recession in the price. Hence the verticality of the fall. And now it remains to be seen how long it can last, something that no one knows. Which means that there is a lot of fabric to cut in front because nobody knows anything no matter how much we elucate. We move in unknown territory: a pandemic. That said, what we have in the titles of Adidas It is an important support area at 164-165 euros. Or what is the same, any long (bullish) position for ‘trading’ at this time happens whether or not this support is respected. But nothing more. The normal thing is to bet on a rebound that in the best case will take you when filling the bearish gap of approx. 240 euros.
Safran It has done what many of the European market stocks have, back to the origin of the last major bullish momentum. In this case it is about returning to the lows of four years ago and from there it seems to want to react. But I can't tell you anything else because we don't have, nor are you expecting, a figure back. And experience tells us that when we have a fall like this and as long as the lows of last week are respected, we can expect at best a significant rebound but within a very erratic movement up and down that can last weeks / months and always within what would be a rebound (reaction phase) after the historic previous collapse of the price. The supports to watch at this time in the title are the lows of the last fall (51.10) and below the lows of 2016 at 48.86 euros.
Finally and in relation to Veolia, more of the same. It is another title that has plummeted above 40%, in line with the market, and that has subtracted all of the latest momentum. Returning to the origin. Which makes it very clear that we have a very important support at 16 euros and below we have another one at the lows of 2017, at 15 euros. And now, in theory, he would have to bounce. With a potential target of rise in price levels close to 22 euros (50% of the broad real body of the weekly bearish candle from two weeks ago). But in the absence of any turn figure it will be a simple rebound or reaction phase. Thank you very much, greetings.
Good morning, José María. Thank you very much for your excellent analysis and comments. I have bought CaixaBank shares for a few years. I do not see very clearly his future considering the important crisis that, again, presents the European financial sector. I would appreciate analysis of the value and expectations in the short and long. I don't mind selling and taking losses if you think there's still a long way to go. Thank you very much and greetings. A.R.
Dear reader, good afternoon. CaixaBank It has in common with the other titles that we have analyzed in the consulting room that has also subtracted all of the last major bullish momentum. That is, it has returned to the 2016 lows at 1.58 euros and has stopped there. And now it could bounce perfectly towards the two euros within the typical movement in ‘pull back’ to the new resistance zone, before support. But be very careful not to respect the 2016 lows because there would be nothing below until the 2012 lows, at 1.39 euros. Make no mistake, in the end this title will do what the European banking sector does, no more and no less. When this sector starts, if it starts, CaixaBank will do it and everyone will. Thank you very much, greetings.
Good Morning. I would like to buy an oil company despite the drop in the price of oil, for diversification and for dividends. Which one does Exxon or Repsol see best? Thank you. B C D.
Dear investor, good afternoon. Oil companies, like all those companies related to tourism, are the most affected by this crisis. And is that oil, which is a clear thermometer of the global economic situation, is trading in a deep global recession. For these prices are as they are. But now you will see how it really doesn't matter investing in Repsol than in Exxon, because both have similar graphics and both have collapsed. Similarly, the recovery, when it arrives, will affect the two companies equally. Starting by Exxon Mobil You can see how the title has dropped 70% from all-time highs and now seems to want to rebound (reaction phase) three back to the origin of the last big move at $ 30 (2002 lows).
And if we look at Repsol we have three quarters of the same. A correction above 60% from the historical highs it reached in 2018 and now seems to want to rebound (reaction phase) from the intermediate zone between the lows of 2016 and 2009. Rebound that in the best of scenarios can lead to fill, at least partially, the weekly bearish gap of 9-9.60 euros. As you can see and how it can not be otherwise the graphics are very similar. At the end of the day, you should know that large movements, both upward and downward, are always sectoral. Read here the analysis that we carried out early this morning on our oil company. Thanks to you, greetings.
Good morning, Mr. Rodríguez. I bought IAG and Santander shares for the long term in early March, specifically, at 5.03 and 3.20 euros respectively. And I think you don't need to tell him everything I lose on both. What do your charts tell you? I thought I had made a very good purchase, because it was in a moment of absolute panic. But then it turns out that it was almost the start of the falls. Greetings from Oropesa. D.RS.
Dear reader, good afternoon. Do not punish yourself excessively because the correction we have had is the fastest in history. Even more than that of the famous ‘crash’ of 1929. Another thing is that we have very punished titles such as IAG. Everything related to tourism has been severely punished. And it will be a long time until it recovers, since it is impossible to determine how long this crisis can last. IAG Almost 80% has collapsed from highs, taking all the supports that have been and will be. What does not mean that we can attend important rebounds against the trend. In fact, note the extent of the fall that if it decided to fill the last of the bearish gaps in the four euros) it would have to almost double its price. IAG is a broken title, absolutely shattered. And little more can be said about the title right now. Nor can anything be said from the point of view of technical analysis because right now there is no analysis that is worth, nor ‘value’, fundamental, technical or anything.
As to Santander, we simply have him in the reaction phase, bouncing off the vicinity of the 2009 lows. And little else. I do not rule out that the rebound will take it to the resistance zone of 2.40-2.45 euros in the first instance and above, even, 2.60-2.65 euros. But all this within a rebound movement after a 50% slump from the February highs. Think that 99% of the market is in the same situation and this will be fixed when the markets around the world perceive the situation differently and build us some kind of figure back. And they will all do it en bloc, at the same time. You can read here the analysis that we carried out early this morning on the Cantabrian entity. Greetings.
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