Wall street It closed with heavy losses of 4% (Dow Jones: -4.55%; S&P 500: -4.35%; Nasdaq: -3.79%) after a week of madness in the markets, the most bearish since 2008. The New York Stock Exchange closed this Thursday with moderate progress, which were more prominent in the technology sector thanks to the rebound of chip makers. But investors are still very aware of the coronavirus crisis and the great economic impact it is having worldwide.
On Wednesday the falls were 5.5%; and on Monday the fall exceeded the 12%, the second largest in history, only surpassed by the crash of 1987. The Dow has lost 20,000 points after falling 17% in the week; and the S&P It has closed at 2,304 integers after sinking 15%. And the Nasdaq He has lost 7,000 points and has dropped 12% in recent sessions.
Even if we can be on the verge of a rebound of a certain size after a vertical collapse greater than 30%, according to the analysts estimate. uncertainty remains maximum.
This does not mean that the stock markets have discounted all the bad news and are going to start going up indefinitely, since later it is possible that return to the lows set this weeka to check if they really are reliable media.
In this sense, the market has already discounted a recession. The United States GDP "it will sink 12%" in a second quarter "brutal", the biggest drop since the Second World Gurra, with a "depression in april", according to analysts at Bank of America Securities. "We think that the US economy it is already in recession, along with the rest of the world, and it is a deep fall"they assure.
His forecast is for the economy to contract 12% after growth of 0.5% in the first quarter. "Although the fall is severe, we think it will be quite shortTherefore, they expect the economy to return to growth in the third quarter. For the whole year, they forecast a 0.8% contraction.
Another problem for these experts is the "high degree of uncertainty" about the forecasts. "The biggest challenge in quantifying the impact of the outbreak is that there is no comparable experience in the modern era. Furthermore, the large scale of the crash is likely to have Massive wave effects that are nonlinear and difficult to quantify in normal econometric models, "they explain.
In addition, information on the evolution of the coronavirus in USA they are not reassuring. Already confirmed 14,372 positive cases and 218 deathsBut the problem is that the country is very late in carrying out tests. NY is the state most affected with 5,713 cases and is already applying drastic containment measures, but in other states like Florida, with 432 cases, the information indicates that the tourist activity has not stopped.
In other markets, oil West Texas falls 11% to $ 23, after bouncing 24% in its best session ever, after collapsing 24% this Wednesday. Black gold discounts investors' fear of a recession, both in the US and globally.
In this sense, the initial unemployment claims They rebounded to 281,000 from 211,000, but analysts expect next week to skyrocket to 2 millions for the closure of shops.
For its part, the euro depreciates 0.4% and changes to 1.0647 dollars after depreciating more than 2% this Thursday by monetary bazooka launched by the ECB, which will buy assets worth 750,000 million euros until the end of the year to try to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. The profitability of 10-year American bond stops its climb and falls 18 points, to 0.94%.
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