Matteo Salvini He wants to return to the scene, and he could do it all out if the forecasts of the surveys are met. The leader of the League already rubs his hands before the elections of the Italian region of Emilia-Romagna, which many experts see as the perfect springboard to the Palazzo Chigi, seat of the Government in Rome. The polls give a very tight result between his formation and the Democratic Party, and if Salvini wins in the end that could pave the way (even more) if there is early general elections.
"His rise to power can only be a matter of time", they assure from Berenberg. The German analysis firm believes that, regardless of the outcome of this Sunday's elections in Emilia-Romagna, the traditional bastion of the center-left Democratic Party, and the consequences it may have for the Government consisting of the 5-Star Movement (M5S) and the PD, the coalition "is so beset by problems that it seems unlikely that it will fulfill the full mandate, until the spring of 2023."
Berenberg states, in fact, that there will be early elections in Italy in 2020 or 2021 at the latest, and that the center-right parties, which currently have 50% of the support according to the polls, "will probably win," which It would allow Salvini to become prime minister.
Everything will depend on what the coalition endures. Several experts have analyzed the situation throughout the week, after the resignation of Luigi di Maio as leader of the M5S, although he remains Minister of Foreign Affairs, and they agree that what happens in Emilia-Romagna, if the rise of the League is confirmed, does not have to mean the end of the Government. At least in the short term.
Above all because none of the parties that are part of it are interested in going to the polls, in the heat of the results of the polls for general elections, which predict that the PD would harvest 18.9% of the votes (compared to 18.8% of the previous elections), while the M5S would have to conform with 15.9% (in the last elections it achieved 32.6%). The League, meanwhile, would win with 32% -36% (in 2018 it was backed by 17.3% of voters), and could form a government with Forza Italia and Brothers of Italy.
MONTHS TRYING TO FORCE ANTICIPATED ELECTIONS
Salvini tries to provoke a fall of the Executive so that there are early elections since he broke his alliance with the 5 Star Movement in August, although then he shot him in the butt because Di Maio and his team allied with the Democratic Party, thus avoiding the elections. The leader of the League is aware that he raises sympathies and the polls continue to give him the victory, so if he wins at Emilia-Romagna he could try to force the electoral advance again. And it would be his second win after win the Umbrian regionals last October.
"The elections in Emilia-Romagna are a great test, and losing would be a blow to the center-left coalition," said Berenberg experts. There may be two scenarios: that there are no changes in the national government or that the coalition falls apart.
"The risk of losing national elections is the glue that holds the coalition together"
In case the M5S Government and the PD go ahead, Berenberg sees a 70% chance that there will be no new problems at least until the next regional May / June. That as long as the center-left manages to keep Emilia-Romagna. "The risk of losing national elections is the glue that holds the coalition together", these analysts point out, who believe that Di Maio's resignation can make the party "more anxious to hold on to power to avoid a possible disastrous defeat." And if the center-left loses the region, there is still a 40% chance that the coalition will remain.
But it may happen that the government falls. "Conversely, the risk of the coalition collapsing in the first half of 2020 is between 30% (if the center-left maintains Emilia-Romagna) and 60% (if it loses it)," says Berenberg. The German firm sees "little love" among the coalition partners and says that since they are in power "they have not developed positive feelings towards each other." That, together with the fact that the coalition "has failed to win over the voters" even with the Budget for this year, which has not created fiscal space to make any concession that can satisfy the electorate, could complicate matters.
"If the PD loses another regional stronghold, after Umbria three months ago, it could conclude that it has more to lose if it remains in the coalition with the weaker 5 Star Movement than if it risks new elections." Berenberg concludes.
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