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The Ibex (-0.2%) supports the 9,600 ballasted by Inditex and supported by Telefónica

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The IBEX 35 has fallen 0.23%, to 9,658.80 points, pressed by Inditex and Santander and sustained by Telefónica and CaixaBank. It should be remembered that we are facing a week in which the European Central Bank (ECB) will be the protagonist -There are types meeting on Thursday-, along with some business results –Bankinter Publish your accounts also on Thursday. In addition, there will be macro data of interest -like the German ZEW or the PMIs- that will help us determine if things are going better in the Old Continent.

Within the Ibex, the falls in banks after a report by Credit Suisse and also on Inditex (-1.8%), which have weighed the selective. On the opposite side it has been located Telefonica (+ 2.72%), given the possible interest of a Latin American holding in its business in Latin America (without Brazil).

In the Continuous Market, OHL has risen 6% and already accumulates a 40% rebound so far this year, waiting for possible news about the entry of the Mexican family Amodio in the capital.

On an economic level, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its growth forecast for the Spanish economy by two tenths in 2020, until 1.6%, same growth that the institution projects for 2021 and one tenth below its estimate for last October.

The IMF has explained this reduction of its projections by a "more marked than expected" slowdown of domestic demand and exports in 2019. Although it also appreciates stabilization symptoms in the global economy. After these forecasts, the euro 0.05% is depreciated and changed to $ 1.1082, while the profitability of the 10-year Spanish bond falls to 0.44%.

Besides, the week starts without the reference of Wall Street, which has closed this Monday for the holiday of Martin Luther King. Therefore, it has been a day of lower trading volume, with all that this implies, especially in terms of volatility.

CENTRAL BANKS, OIL, DAVOS …

"The central banks will be protagonists this week, with the meetings of the Norges Bank and the ECB on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan on Tuesday. We will also receive more news about the pace of global recovery with the publication of the PMIs of the Euro Zone, the USA, Japan and the United Kingdom, all Friday ", explain the experts of Danske Bank.

The week has also started with oil movement for intensification of political unrest in several regions. In Libya, the ongoing civil war has caused the blockade of ports and pipelines and has forced the national oil company to announce the withdrawal of some 400,000 barrels a day from the market.

In Iraq, the repercussions of the recent confrontation between Iran and the United States remain persistent. During the weekend, the discontent of the workers led to closure of one of the large oil fieldsAl Ahdab, while another, Badra, runs the risk of being closed. The crude Brent 1% scale, up to levels close to 66 dollars per barrel.

This will also be the week of Davos Forum, with the meeting in Switzerland of 3,000 personalities and great leaders from all over the world and to the one that will come Donald Trump. The meeting starts this Tuesday and runs until Friday. This Tuesday investors they will also attend the opening by the Senate of the political trial against the president of the United States..

"The central bankers will be in Davos and could take the opportunity to reflect on their next strategic revisions. As for the Trump trial, it will generate a lot of noise in the market, but we emphasize that the president is still unlikely to be overthrown, since this requires the backing of Republican senators, "they point out from Danske Bank.

IBEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 35

"The 'feeling' is still good in our Ibex. And, despite the red numbers, we close away from the minimum of the day and return to the doors of the 9,700 point resistance. A close above, to be able to be with some slack, would be a clear sign of strength in our selective. Prelude to what can be a new bullish section aiming at 10,000 points as a round and psychological figure, "says José María Rodríguez, an analyst at Bolsamanía.

"But it is no less true that if we believe the inverted 'head and shoulders' of which we have spoken in previous analyzes, this points towards 10,500 points. Everything will remain in order, under control, to the extent that the support of 9,468 points is not punctured. We highlight this Monday to Telefonica, which is placed at the gates of the resistance presented in the approximately 6.37-6.38 euros, before important support area, "concludes this expert.

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